Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
India's merchandise exports dipped marginally in March to $41.69 billion, and by 3.11 per cent during the last fiscal year to $437.06 billion mainly due to continued geopolitical turmoil, and depressed global trade. Imports, too, declined in March as well during the entire 2023-24. Trade deficit, or the gap between imports and exports, narrowed 17.74 per cent in March to $15.6 billion and came down 9.33 per cent to $240.17 billion in FY24.
Ahead of his much-anticipated visit to conflict-torn Ukraine, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday said India firmly believes that no problem can be solved on the battlefield and it is ready to extend all possible cooperation for the restoration of peace and stability in the region.
'The race is now on for Indian IT firms to develop their AI prowess and focus on a software-first approach to services as the people element becomes more complicated with Trump's expected new regulations.'
The only real solution to the jobs crisis, whether in India or abroad, is to direct tech innovation towards job enhancing sectors, and disincentivising job-replacing ones, observes R Jagannathan.
Oil and LNG prices are likely to shoot up if Iran is to block Strait of Hormuz, through which countries like India import crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, leading to a spike in inflation, analysts said on the Iran-Israel conflict. The Iran and Israel conflict has escalated over the last few days. Iran first launched drone and rocket attacks on Israel, which retaliated by firing a missile. Crude oil prices have hovered around USD 90 per barrel since the conflict.
The avoidable stresses and strains in ties helped in one way. It showed for the entire region how a matured India handled diplomatic relations, especially with a smaller and suspicious neighbour, with practised dignity and patience, unruffled by provocations in word, deed and action, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Referring to the impact of political turmoil in West Asia, he said the crisis would not hurt the economy unless the crude oil prices rise to 'abnormally' high levels.
On February 24, when Vladimir Putin announced a military operation on Ukraine, few would have thought that Indian government-owned GAIL India would feel the impact. The tensions over gas supplies were essentially a Europe-Russia problem, related to the sanctions western economies imposed on Moscow. But the EU depends on Russian imports for 40 per cent of its gas stocks, an over-dependence that Russia has underlined with Kremlin-owned Gazprom cutting its supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20 per cent, citing maintenance issues.
India must be prepared to deal with climate disasters, geopolitical confrontations, and social strife linked to global events, asserts Jayant Sinha, chairman of Parliament's Standing Committee on Finance.
India on Wednesday asserted there can be no military solution to the lethal Syrian conflict and societies cannot be "re-ordered from outside" as people have the right to choose their own destiny.
'US officials must grapple with the possibility that one of its closest partners attempted an extrajudicial killing on its soil.' 'This is not something that friends typically do to friends.'
'The Weather Channel argues that India faces the gravest challenge: Climate change-induced health vulnerability.' 'This is an issue often neglected, alerts Claude Arpi: "Prolonged summers, unpredictable rains, floods, droughts, and rising sea levels are the harsh realities of climate change in the country. These factors increase the frequency and severity of illnesses, pushing people into poverty, and forcing migration".'
Meanwhile, investors pulled out a record $14.45 billion out of bond funds tracked by EPFR Global, as fears that US monetary policy will tighten in the second half of the year prompted more investors to head for the exits.
'...to prevent this episode from disrupting ongoing cooperation.' 'The discovery of this plot had the potential to derail much of what has been achieved in the relationship during this administration's tenure -- I don't think that fact has been sufficiently appreciated in India.'
It's easy to say investors should focus on fundamentals but this risk can have a significant and lasting impact
'Both Russia and the USA seek New Delhi's friendship, because for both -- Russia and the USA -- India is a certain counterbalance to China.'
India has maintained communication with both Russia and Ukraine. It is time Narendra Modi steps up on the world stage and plays the role of peacemaker, suggests military historian Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
Such a disruption will take the clock back by many years - in terms of passengers handled - for these airports, thus raising questions among some of the airport operators over a delay in expansion plans.
China's devaluation creates new risk in global financial markets and could prolong the West's slowdown.
While proposals for covers in volatile markets aren't denied, premiums are much higher - by as much as 100-600%
The Russian-Ukraine war can hit the global supply chains that are already constrained due to the pandemic and the worst impact will be on ongoing chip shortage because the warring nations brutally control supplies of key raw materials that go into making semiconductors, warns a report. Since Russia controls as much as 44 per cent of global palladium suppplies, Ukraine produces a significant 70 per cent of the global supply of neon -- the two key raw materials that go into making chips. The markets can expect the global chip shortage, that began with the pandemic, to worsen if the military conflict lingers on, says a Moody's Analytics report on Friday.
'The bigger challenge and dilemma for Pakistan would be if the US and Saudi Arabia go full throttle against Iran and enforce regime change in Tehran.' 'That would be bad news for Pakistan, especially with the current instability in Balochistan,' notes Brigadier Narender Kumar (retd).
We have already suffered considerable collateral damage as a result of the war, and its continuance will continue to dampen our prospects for faster economic growth. We have a direct and legitimate interest in its early cessation, counsels former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
'Washington appears to be playing the long game, and making the argument to India that over the longer term, Russia -- sanctioned, cash-strapped, isolated by the West -- will no longer be a viable defence partner for India'
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said some countries still use terrorism as "an instrument of state policy" and the world must act against radicalisation without any political consideration
Historically, tensions in West Asian regions have provided support to gold prices.
In the book 10 Flashpoints: 20 years that is set to be released on December 2, the former union minister has looked back at the security situations that have impacted India in the last two decades.
'India is possibly the most fiscally constrained market in the region.'
'Domestic will remain very much the core of what IndiGo is.' 'But the emphasis in our next growth phase is going to be on the international side.'
'India enjoys the maneuverability of a coming big power.' 'It is this possibility that has persuaded Moscow to humour India and stayed Washington from getting punitive about India's neutrality on the Ukraine issue.'
India's macroeconomic situation has benefited from oil prices' decline.
'...but from those who control the narrative.' Powerful nations have mastered this art of narrative building. Those nations who aspire to become global powers must do so, observes Shanthie Mariet D'Souza.
'Right now, politics is operating in a state of suspended animation. That works to Modi's advantage.'
Usually, a fall in oil prices is followed with a cut in retail prices of auto fuels and the government passes on the benefit to consumers. However, Morgan Stanley believes gains this time around will remain capped.
'Modi is still immensely popular and, therefore, he can sustain any number of policy failures.' 'Modi himself has worn multiple faces so it would be naive to think that the Modi of 2021 will be the same Modi that will be campaigning for re-election in 2024.'
'Devyani -- she is a public servant and her personal life has already received far too much attention -- and her ambitious father now need to retreat to the background so that wiser diplomatic heads restore sanity to India-US relations as India prepares for parliamentary elections,' says Ambassador K C Singh.
As a model of transport, the A380 strikes a parallel -- a shared fragility -- with giant container ships, observes Shyam G Menon.
How China's all powerful Communist party bungled the response to the coronavirus crisis.
This means lower losses on fuel sales by Indian oil companies and a shrinking oil subsidy bill for the government.
